I enjoyed a rare day off yesterday - simply because my job is so damned busy that I'm staying late almost every night.

The union I work for has a system of health insurance qualification which involves deadlines for filing contracts. Inconveniently, those deadlines always fall at the end of the year, which is always busy because of holiday parties, holiday shopping, and time off from the office. This year, my office thankfully gave me a couple of extra days off, because the holidays fall on weekends. It's really nice, because I'll get to do a lot more snowboarding. However, it also means crunch time is even more crunched as well, which means staying until 7pm every night and getting in at 8am.

It was nice to have a day off from poker, though. It gave me time to enjoy the fact that I've come back from a pretty disasterous downswing with my poker game and bankroll intact. I'm actually now in a similar financial position to the one I was in about 5 weeks ago. The two important differences are the $100 in rakeback points I've additionally accured...and the improvement I've noticed in my play over the last 1000 games.

Things are generally good.

One thing that I do lament, outside of the poker universe, is that I missed my martial arts test this past weekend. I was prepared for it, but unfortunately could not afford the cost of the test with all the holiday expenses. I'll have another opportunity to test in March, and I'm sure at that time I'll have enough money to do so. I will undoubtedly be encouraged to double-test, as I actually currently know almost enough material for two tests anyway (I'll actually probably be ready for three in March). Provided that I pass, I will advance from Assistant Instructor to High Rank Assistant Instructor, and I will be three or four ranks away from earning my 2nd degree black belt. At 2nd Degree, I will be automatically promoted to a full instructor.

One has to be careful as a black belt in a martial art discipline, because it is really quite easy to become complacent, and to rest on the laurels of your previous challenges. The belt system, an all-important litmus test for progress, becomes less significant, in a figurative and literal sense. Before black belt, you are gaining an entirely new belt every three months. After black belt, you may change belts every 3 to 5 years, and only alter them by adding small stripes to delineate progress. As a result, self-motivation becomes important, as the routine becomes, well....it becomes much more of a GRIND.

Sound familiar?

A good friend quipped to me two days ago that the eventual enemy in all this, one I had gained enough experience, confidence and knowledge, would be the GRIND itself. I think he's absolutely right. Today, I was unsure I even wanted to play poker when I woke up. When you invest 4 hours every day into something, there are times where you simply do not feel like playing anymore. How do we get past this....especially while losing?

Again, the key is self-motivation. In martial arts, you always find spots for improvement, if you look hard enough. It doesn't matter if you are 1st degree, 3rd degree, 5th degree. There is always room for improvement. I've seen 4th degree black belts capable of anything you can imagine humbled in a split second by the Grandmaster for a slightly incorrect stance.

Indeed, I did play poker today. However, since I was grinding so hard in front of a computer screen at work all day, I decided to play less than my daily cache - just 18 tourneys. It actually doesn't matter a whole lot for the remainder of the year - I will maintain my goldstar status simply by playing about 135 more tournaments this month, and I have no way of pushing through the Platinum, nor can I earn any more stellar rewards this year. Thus, I'll probably be picking less spots to play, and making sure that I'm fresh when I do.

Oh, and it was another up day....although nothing to write home about. Still, a slight win is a slight win...

Current Bankroll: $958.88
FPP Balance / cash value: 11983.62 / $191.74
Total tourneys played: 1829
Average buyin: $8.99
Total amount invested: $16,434.50
Total poker profit earned: $208.80
Total additional cash bonuses earned: $100.00
ROI (including cash bonuses and points) : 1.27% (3.05%)

Another hidden 6...found a pocket of time to lock in two more wins. This is officially a heater - I've won 11 of my last 25 tourneys with 2 additional second places. Gents, these are the brief, beautiful spikes in time that you go through the thousands of tournaments of boredom and frustration for. You hope for a week of bliss to cancel out the last month of misery. It almost gets to the point where you don't want to play because your spreadsheet looks so damned pretty and you just don't want to fuck it up.

You also get superstitious about your routine. Only going to the bathroom after certain sets. Whether you eat while you play. What you eat while you play. What you drink while you play. And so on...

Since bottoming out, my recent upswing is actually much larger than just this blippy spike...and worth reflecting on. At an average buy-in of $8.65 (remarkably similar to my overall average), my ROI over my last 785 tourneys currently stands at 6.56%. It could be that it's just anomalous...but I think it's more likely that we're also seeing some improvement as I keep playing. Certainly, I feel like I'm learning a lot...and getting more comfortable.

I have a non-poker rant for tomorrow.

Current Bankroll: $955.28
FPP Balance / cash value: 11785.62 / $188.57
Total tourneys played: 1811
Average buyin: $8.95
Total amount invested: $16,200.50
Total poker profit earned: $205.20
Total additional cash bonuses earned: $100.00
ROI (including cash bonuses and points) : 1.27% (3.05%)

Only two sets today...but they were two good sets. I could play more, but I have a lot of other things to take care of. It's always psychologically nice to go out on a high note for a short run.

Current Bankroll: $939.68
FPP Balance / cash value: 11719.62 / $187.51
Total tourneys played: 1805
Average buyin: $8.93
Total amount invested: $16,122.50
Total poker profit earned: $189.60
Total additional cash bonuses earned: $100.00
ROI (including cash bonuses and points) : 1.18% (2.96%)

A typical grindy day...plenty of ups and plenty of downs, but thankfully, a positive overall expectation again. I am now up over $400 since bottoming out on my last downswing.

I finally got SNG wiz software, as well as upgrading my Pokertracker. I have all that I need for now. It didn't cost me all that much, either, which is splendid because I'm totally broke due to the holiday season. It's pretty funny how you can maintain a live bankroll but still be utterly broke in the real world...

The Wiz software is already coming in handy. I'm identifying a lot of leaks and shoring them up as we speak. I'm using the software about 1-2 hours a day in addition to playing. There's still a lot more work to do, but I'm very happy that I'm identifying definite spots for improvement. I think the most devastating thing would be to not be able to identify those spots, and not understand why I wasn't just crushing $13s at 15% already.

EDIT: Snuck in 18 more tourneys at EXACTLY break-even. 5 1sts, no 2nds. Apparently 5 1sts and no seconds in 18 tourneys yields exactly break-even. Weird.

Current Bankroll: $858.08
FPP Balance / cash value: 11587.62 / $185.40
Total tourneys played: 1793
Average buyin: $8.90
Total amount invested: $15,956.50
Total poker profit earned: $108.00
Total additional cash bonuses earned: $100.00
ROI (including cash bonuses and points) : 0.68% (2.47%)

Up $15 today....but I did finally hit that Stellar Reward bonus of $50, which increased my bankroll to its highest day-end level since mid November.

Current Bankroll: $849.68
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 10927.62 / $174.84
Total tourneys played: 1733
Average buyin: $8.76
Total amount invested: $15,176.50
Total profit earned: $99.60
ROI: 0.66%

6 years ago, when I started playing online seriously, the poker world was totally different. Tracking software to use with poker clients online was just getting released. The internet was still relatively new, and not everyone even had an email address or cellphone. US law didn't discourage people from gambling online, so there were more people casually involved and less people more seriously involved in internet poker.

Boy, have times changed.

One of the most surprisingly things I've learned upon my return to the virtual tables is just how many people are doing this seriously these days. When I played the largest Multi-table tournaments on Pokerstars six years ago, the field was typically no larger than 4000-5000 entrants, and that was considered a huge field. My second largest MTT cash was placing 11th out of 4000 participants in the then-Sunday 1/2 million. These days, the same tournament now carries 2x the guaranteed amount...and more than 2x the participants well; last week's tourney was almost 9000 players. I played a Goldstar freeroll 4 years ago, and was able to take $1,000 1st place prize out of 975 entrants - with a $5,000 guaranteed prize pool. The Goldstar Freeroll is now $100,000 guaranteed and sports 8,000+ participants (side note: unfortunately, because it falls on the last saturday of every month, it actually falls on Christmas Day this month, so I will be unable to play it - but I am looking forward to Lottery Daydreaming about $15k first prize in the future...).

More players means more regular players, or "regs". I've now played quite a bit at the lowest pro limits, and I'm really starting to see a lot of the same players over and over again, no doubt trying to eke out a modest profit by taking advantage of the dead money from the fish at the tables, but also trying to make the same rakeback bonuses I am to either make themselves a modest living or add to their bankroll. I'm sure as I move up, the regs will be more and more and more prevalent. At 5% ROI, playing 12,000 of these $13s a year, one could conceivably make about $13,000 in profit from both poker and bonuses. Not a bad way to supplement your income.

The other surprising thing is just how much software you really need to be competitive. A Heads-Up Display, which allows you to see how loose/tight and passive/aggressive different players are based on your history with them, is most essential. It operates on top of the client, superimposing the info while you play. The software I use for this also contains a searchable database to keep track of all the data, including more specific information, such as how often players 3bet, how often they fold to a 3bet, how often they steal the blinds, how often they defend against a steal...and so on. SNG Wiz, a program to determine the expected value of plays of certain situations and ranges, has also become indespensible. You'd be surprised how often it makes sense to push K5o 3-handed when the blinds get high.

All told, it's probably going to cost me about $500-$1000 and a ton of hours of reconfiguring just to eventually set up my box exactly the way that I want to. Hilariously, I would be way better off with a PC than a Mac, as much of the software only runs on PC. For now, I may have to get a cheap one. I will probably eventually buy a laptop with a relatively large screen, so that I can play virtually anywhere.

Today was a pretty good one at the tables. I had one positive outlier set, 3 1sts and 2 2nds over a 6 tourney spread, which set the tone for the whole session. It was the best set I've had up at $13s in a long time. All told, I was up $78 on the day.

Current Bankroll: $785.28
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 10532.62 / $168.52
Total tourneys played: 1697
Average buyin: $8.67
Total amount invested: $14708.50
Total profit earned: $85.20
ROI: 0.58%

I did it! Break even. I'm stopping for the day in order to celebrate, despite the fact I technically should play 12 more. Screw it. I'm enjoying this.

Current Bankroll: $708.48
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 10070.62 / $161.13
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1655
Average buyin: $8.56
Total amount invested: $14162.50
Total profit earned: $8.40
ROI: .06%

Another rare midday post. Basically just the stats, while I'm in front of my own computer. Had a nice run this am...on the brink once again...


Current Bankroll: $673.98
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 9938.62 / $159.01
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1643
Average buyin: $8.53
Total amount invested: $14006.50
Total profit earned: -$26.10
ROI: -0.19%

On Tuesday afternoon, I had YET ANOTHER disappointing set at $13s and wound up down about $60. I was left floating exactly $25 above my mendoza line of $520. As you can probably imagine, it's getting to the point where I am beyond frustrated at this level, and occasionally, in order to shake anything loose, you have to go outside the boundaries of rational, orthodox thinking and engage in what we will lovingly refer to as a SLUMPBUSTER.

For those not privy to MLB clubhouse protocol, a SLUMPBUSTER is a term baseball players often throw around. If you're in the midst of a particularly bad run, say batting .160 for the month of June, teammates will often encourage you to engage in this activity. Essentially, it literally implies going out to the nearest bar, picking up the worst looking girl at said bar, and taking her home for some after hours activity.

To be clear, I did not literally engage in this particular activity. However, I did do something similarly irrational. I took my remaining above-mendoza money and fired up a single $25 tourney.

And hilariously, I won it.

I think I'm going to avoid $25s for a while, simply because the ability to boast a 264% ROI at a level isn't something you're able to enjoy very often.

Later on that evening, I ran the rest of the day's cache up to $7 below overall break even. The last two days, because of an insane work schedule, I've been unable to play very much, and naturally, I have NOT been able to break through, slipping back instead at the $13s to down $68. This is becoming almost comical. I'm down nearly 35 buyins at $13s and up everywhere else across the board. What exactly is this shit?

I'll post stats later. One of these days I'll be in green numbers again...

The grind is still the grind - still floating around $600 in bankroll, with the overall holding at about -$90 through 1550ish tourneys. I don't have all my data in front of me, so it's an estimate.

I've been able to play about 120 more tourneys at the $13 level, mixed in with about 30 lower level tournaments when I dipped below the self-imposed mendoza line. My ROI at the $6.50s has considerably improved - up to 6.85% over about 500 games, while my ROI has been about the same at the $13s, about -5%. One of these days I'll hit an upswing up there. For now, I'm still at about -0.5% ROI overall.

I also just crossed the 9,000 FPP threshold. I'm also on the verge of a cash bonus from Stars called a "Stellar Reward" - where they actually pay you money if you hit a yearly benchmark for VIP points. In this case, it will be 10,000 VIP points for $50. I'm probably between 5 and 10 days away from earning this. It will probably be my final Stellar Reward for this year. However, once they reset in January, I'll be able to hit a bunch of $10 bonuses, as well as a $50 bonus, within the first two months, which might really help to supplement my meager bankroll.

As for the FPPs... once I get to 13,500, I can elect to buy into a $215 tourney at the max value, something I'm actually toying with. I have a lot of documented success in MTT, even in a couple of bigger tourneys, but my mind has been so geared towards STT that I'm really out of recent practice and wary of switching it up. I'll have to think about it some more. However, if I were just to place in a tourney like this and unlock more bankroll, it could mean jumping up a lot earlier. Obviously, there is the lure of the Lottery Mindset as well.

The Lottery Mindset is one of the only things about MTT that I truly miss. Having had some success at a couple of big tournaments, it's not unrealistic to sit back and dream of what it would be like to take down $150,000k or so in one of the Sunday Millions. After all, I have placed 1st in a $300, as well as 11th in the Sunday Million before. In STT, you really don't have the opportunity to dream about a big cash - it's just grind, grind, grind, grind, grind. However, I really don't miss playing a single tournament for say, 11 hours, to bubble out in 85th place out of 500 entrants in deep stacks, nor do I miss spending all sunday to eke out a $4.00 profit with zero rakeback. Can you say "argh"?

I figured out today that if I were to just break even at $13s for 2011 playing 36 tourneys a day, I would still earn $800 in Stellar Rewards, and roughly $2,100 in FPPs by earning about 70k in VIP points. I would earn about $3,000 in total value. If I can just break even by mixing in 35% $25s, I can hit the PlatinumStar level monthly, and Supernova by year's end, multiplying my rewards considerably. This will require approximately a $1700 starting bankroll, but it would also mean that I would earn roughly $2,000 in Stellar Rewards and $3,040 in FPPs, a considerable jump up from $3,000 in rewards to $5,000...

1st place in tourney #1500. Good omen? Hopefully.

I've still been able to tread water at the $13s - to the utter delight of my rakeback rewards. It's been somewhat of a confidence booster for me as well, but not as much as I had hoped - I'm still waiting for that big upswing I know I'm due for. My bankroll has just been yo-yoing between $550 and $680. I nearly touched an OVERALL GREEN number this afternoon... at the end of my third set I was -$8 overall...but I couldn't quite push through and I slipped back a bit towards the end of the day.

Here are some interesting factoids about my experience thus far at $13s:

In my first 361 tourneys, I had a ROI of 8.39%, and was up over 30 buyins over that span.

In my last 257 tourneys, I have a ROI of -21%, and am down 54 buyins over that span.

My worst part of this was over the first 220 buyins of this current downswing, where I had a ROI of -30% and was down 61 buyins over that span.

I have won just 29 out of 257 6-man tourneys over this downswing, at little over 11% of them. My straight expected value against randoms should be $16.6%.

Did I mention that the swings are brutal?

♠♣♥♦ ♠♣♥♦ ♠♣♥♦ ♠♣♥♦ ♠♣♥♦ ♠♣♥♦

To go back to a point a made a few days ago: As you get to higher rakeback levels, the money you make on rake is actually more than your expected ROI, even if you are one of the best players at a certain level.

Let me clarify this a bit with some data.

If I were to play $25s instead of $13s, I'd be paying enough in rake to qualify for level 4 status, PlatinumStar (currently I'm at level 3, GoldStar). Although ROI includes the rake you pay, for the purposes of this exercise, let's treat it differently. PlatinumStar players earn about 23% of the rake they pay back from the site in the form of FPPs.

At $25s, you can expect to make 8% if you are one of the top players. If I played 400 tourneys, and I earned 8% on it, I would have invested $10,000 in poker, and earned an $800 profit on my investment. The rake for $25s is $2, and the amount of money in play is $23. Clear so far?

If we consider the rake "neutral", we actually have $9,200 in live money, which turned out to be $10,000 after our $800 in profit. We therefore made 8.7% on "live money". On our $800 rake, we earned 23% in rakeback, which paid us $184 on an $800 investment (which we have already gotten back out of the site as well). We actually made a higher percentage on our rake than we did on our live money! Therefore, it should always been our objective to get as much money into rake as possible, which seems totally counter-intuitive to every notion most of us have ever had about poker.

Tomorrow is a well-deserved off day. I decided to stop exactly at 1500 tourneys today in order to use my snowboarding trip as a time for some reflection. I'm so close to break-even I can smell it...

Beginning 12/3 bankroll: $614
End 12/4 bankroll $618
Net: +$4
2 day FPP earned / cash value: 792 / $12.67
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 8552.62 / $136.84
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1500
Average buyin: $8.25
Total amount invested: $12369.50
Total profit earned: -$71.80
ROI: -0.59%

Well, I was able to fire two missiles at the RED WALL today, and good news... I get to keep firing tomorrow.

I had a nice upswing this morning at $6.50s, which brought me up to $604. As I mentioned a couple of days ago, as soon as I hit $598 I was planning on firing up a set of 6 $13s, to see if I could work down my negative number. My first missile against the RED WALL fizzled - had an x,x,x,x,x,1 distribution, which is -3BI, roughly. Still, I had 4 BI left above the $520 floor that I set, so I decided just to fire up a smaller round of 4 to see if I could get anything going. I luckily took 2 1st places in those 4, so I'm sitting pretty at $614 after 40 tourneys today. Slowly but surely, it appears as though I may be inching along towards a break-even player again.

Non-poker stuff-

Sunday will be my first snowboarding foray of the season. I'm heading up to Wisconsin with my partner-in-crime Rachel for some fun at Devil's Head Resort, the best overall place within striking distance of Chicago. Of course, compared to anywhere with actual terrain, it's a far cry from being ideal. It's about 8 times smaller than anything in Colorado, and about 5-6 times smaller than anything out east. However, as far as a day trip from Chicago goes, it's our best option. The sundays-only pass was only $169, so if we go the 10ish times we are planning on, it works out that we spend something like $10-$20 per lift ticket per day. It's only 3 hours away. Leave at 9am, get in 8 hours of boarding, back by midnight.

I'm no expert at boarding yet, but I'm good enough now to get down anything at Devil's Head without falling (I'm sure I'll eat these words on my first time out this season). Last year, I started experimenting with the terrain park, and I'm hoping to pick up where I left off there. I'm not doing rails yet, but I was able to use some of the boxes and ramps, albeit with mixed results. I'm also planning on reconfiguring my board in order to achieve my other season goal: learning how to ride switch-stance. My right foot is typically forward (referred to as "goofy"), so switch stance for me is "regular", left-food-forward. It's hard for me to do currently, as my board is currently set up asymmetrically, but if I reconfigure my board to be symmetrical I think it will be much easier.

My band Roxy Swain also met last night. Essentially, it's a retro rock/power pop band with a female vocalist. We've decided to make some changes going forward, because we feel our songs aren't as strong as they could be quite yet. We're going to play one last show to promote our debut album, and then we're planning on embarking on a phase of writing and arranging that will hopefully yield some brand new material by April. I'm also switching from predominantly playing rhythm guitar to predominantly playing keyboards. We've consciously decided to make a concerted effort towards further defining our style and sound, and I'm suddenly very optimistic about the band's future. It's the best band I've probably ever been in, and certainly the most talented. We really have potential to reach I wide audience, in my opinion.

Back to poker...I'm really pleased that I've weathered a pretty bad storm with my bankroll still kicking. Today I learned that many players experience not only 2000 game break-even periods, but 3000 game break-even periods. Still got my work cut out for me, I'm afraid. The nice thing is that the rakeback cash value now currently outweighs what I've lost at these tournaments.

Beginning 11/30 bankroll: $534
End 12/2 bankroll $614
Net: +$80
3 day FPP earned / cash value: 533.5 / $8.53
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 7760.62 / $124.17
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1428
Average buyin: $8.01
Total amount invested: $11433.50
Total profit earned: -$75.40
ROI: -0.66%

Not much time to post - have to run out to the weekly karaoke spread. 35 tourneys today, again -$10. Feel like I'm treading water a bit, but that's ok - it's better than losing.

An interesting fact about doing this is that even at the medium levels, it seems you actually earn more back from money in rake than you do from live money. It's very counter-intuitive. I haven't worked out all the math yet, though.

New terminology - I'm changing the RED HOLE to the RED WALL. No pun intended for you Chicago hipsters from circa 2005.

Today, I played even more tourneys - all told, 66 of 'em. My boss was actually out of the office completely, and it gave me a rare opportunity to play a couple of groups at work. Additionally, I was able to play for 2.5 hours tonight, giving me the highest single day total I've ever had. I must admit that I'm kind of mentally fried, though.

I guess the semi-bad news is that I lost $10. Oh well. I'd had 3 pretty good days in a row.

Some good news, however.

I now have a total of 805 tourneys at the two lower levels I've played at, the $3.25 and $6.50. I have about an average ROI of 4.25% at those two levels combined.

Obviously, the other bad news is that at the higher $13 level, I still have the RED WALL to contend with...536 tourneys at a -4.5% clip. I getting more comfortable with the idea that the data in this set is screwed up with a massive outlier. There's just too many statistical anomalies - the high 6th place %, the low 1st place %, and the unreal final 160 tourneys I played at that level, all things I've never seen anywhere else in my data at any level, even going back to the old days.

I can accept that I'm not one of the best players, or maybe not even much of a winning player, and that I have work to do on my game, particularly in close spots. I'm definitely still on the learning curve. However, I'm certainly not a -4.5% player at the $13 level. I might be as bad as break even, but I'm not -4.5%.

Overall, I'm still in the red - although not by much, and the % is getting smaller and smaller. So, what's my plan of attack for the RED WALL, you ask?

Well, I've hatched a scheme.

Right now, my BR is nestled at $534. That's roughly 82 buyins at the $6.50 level. Now, I do want to maintain a standing reserve of 80 buyins at the $6.50 level to swing with, simply because I'm pretty sure I can hold my own down here. I don't want to go busto needlessly by underrolling myself and taking a huge risk. So, anytime I'm below or at 80-90 buyins at the $6.50, I'm going to play exclusively at that level.

However...if I'm able to run my total up to $598, I'm going to volley a missile at the RED WALL in the form of a set of 6 $13 tourneys. It won't be any more than that, unless I have a winning set of six. However, the idea is that even if I have another disasterous set, something like 6,5,4,3,3,3, I'll still have my 80 buyin reserve to play the $6.50s with.

If I have a set that loses a little, say an x,x,x,x,1,2 distribution (where x is any non-cash), it means I lose the rake, which would be -$6 in this case. I'd still drop back down, and when I hit $598 again I'll fire my second missile of six tourneys at the RED WALL.

If I win, I'm firing an immediate second round. If I can keep it above $598, I'm going to keep firing and keep firing.

Eventually, I'm praying something sticks to the damned thing.

The good news is that I'll get more FPPs at the higher limit, so hopefully I'll be able to occasionally put my foot on the gas pedal and get to higher rewards. I have no doubt that it's still going to be an up and down ride.

I'm going to try to blog more about the non-poker things going on in my life starting tomorrow, as well. For now, I need to sleep. The data:

Beginning 11/29 bankroll: $544
End 11/29 bankroll $534
Net: -$10
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 363 / $5.81
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 7227.12 / $115.63
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1342
Average buyin: $8.08
Total amount invested: $10802.00
Total profit earned: -$155.90 (there was an error in yesterday's total)
ROI: -1.45%

Today, I decided to play continuously again. I purposely opted to play 24 tourneys in a row at two different times. To recap, "continuously" means that I start with 6, and rather than play just those 6 until all are finished and then open a new 6, I open new tourneys continuously, as I'm finished with each one, to keep 6 live at all times. The advantage is that I play quicker, so my hourly profit goes up, the disadvantage is that it's significantly more fatiguing and I probably miss more +EV spots, so my ROI probably goes down.

The first "group" of 24 was played in 2 hours and 1 minute. I kind of got crushed a bit. The first 6 tourneys finished were all out of the money, and it set the tone for the entire group. It seems as though regularly you can predict an entire session from the first 6-7 tourney run, particularly if it's either really hot or really cold. I've noticed often that a solid 6-10 block of instances either way typifies the meat of the daily story, whereas the other tourneys are usually just treading water. I'll have one block during a hot day that goes 1,1,6,4,1,1,2, and I'll be way way up, with the rest of the tourneys at a typical distribution. Conversely, I'll have one block that's 6,5,3,6,2,3,3, and I'll probably be down or hopefully even. C'est la game.

Luckily, in this case, the group as a whole didn't get much worse than that, ending at -7 buyins overall. I basically tread water after the first 6.

The second "group" of 24 was played about 5 hours later. Breaks are really required when you are playing this intensively, so it's not really possible to play for 2 hours, take 15 minutes, hit the john, grab a slice and a coke, and then sit back down and fire up another 24 tourneys for 2 more hours. Mentally and emotionally, one gets very fatigued. I played the second in 2 hours and 17 minutes, and as you would guess from the extended length, that group fared much better, + 11 buyins, for an overall +4 buyins for 48 tourneys.

2-2.5 hours seems to be the limit of good concentration. A lot of pros who go for Supernova Elite have blogged about playing 3 times a day in 2.5 hour sessions, because of the fatigue factor. Many recommend not playing more than that at once, and apparently, stats bear out that you decline rapidly after just about 150 minutes. Your brain really does get fatigued from making so many decisions so quickly. Towards the end of the second group, I did notice myself severely fatiguing, although it apparently had no negative expectation on the result. My last seven finishes were 1,5,1,2,2,1,1.

It is encouraging that I was able to simply do this today, despite whether the result was positive or negative (NO, NO, NO...I'LL TAKE THE WIN, POKER GODS! REALLY!). It's akin to distance running, something I used to do in high school. It takes a ton of conditioning to be able to run 3 miles effectively, and often you need to train by running much longer distances to build up endurance. I used to put about 1000 miles on my body every summer, often in 12 mile jaunts, just to be able to have the strength, stamina and endurance to handle running 5 kilometers at about 12 miles an hour.

Poker endurance is very similar. I've found that it's taken me a couple of months to develop the concentration and willpower to be able to play this much this often. Originally, I thought I could only handle playing 4 tourneys at a time, but through some trial and error, I was able to get up to 6. With hotkeys and the right companion software, I'm sure 8 would be no problem (I kinda like 6 for now, though). Playing 24 a day was originally my goal, but I was able to move that up to 36. Now I have my sights set on potentially doing 42-48. At first, playing continuously was too tough to manage, so I stuck with sets. Now I'm getting used to both.

I was hoping to find a way to get more tourneys in per day, and it appears that playing continuously may be the way to go to get this result. The decisions are starting to become very automatic, particularly at high blind levels. Honestly, I don't really want to play for more than 3-4 hours per day on average. Not only does it wear you out mentally, but it also just interferes with life too much on that level, and we aren't playing for enough money where it really matters that much yet.

I'm still digging myself out of what I'm now terming THE RED HOLE. I can see the top, but there's still a lot of digging to do, and I may end up slipping down again before I see the surface. Still, I'm very encouraged by 3 winning days in a row, albeit with modest returns on each day.

ADDENDUM: I snuck in 6 more tourneys while I couldn't sleep. 3,3,4,3,1,1 for +$8 more. Booyah.

Kicking it old school, here's some stats.

Beginning 11/28 bankroll: $511
End 11/28 bankroll $544
Net: +$33
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 297 / $4.75
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 6864.12 / $109.83
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1275
Average buyin: $8.14
Total amount invested: $10373.00
Total profit earned: -$151.30
ROI: -1.46%

My girlfriend said something funny today. She said that I should play more poker today, since she knew I enjoyed it. If only she knew....this is work, folks....

Also, only 6 days until I hit the slopes with my snowboard for the first time this season. I can't wait!

Well, I'm back. Last night, a good friend mentioned to me that even if I wasn't going to play every day, I needed to blog every day, and discuss the psychological impact of doing this.

I have, in fact, returned to playing every day, though...slowly. I finally had two days in a row where I played a "normal" cache of tourneys - thankfully at a positive clip, for once.

The swings of the game are what tend to destroy most players. One day you are feeling unstoppable, as if doing this for a living will be the easiest thing since sliced bread. You believe every heater will be followed by an even better one. You even tell yourself that you're "owed" even more than you've already gotten out of poker, because you've "paid your dues" and that one time the guy sucked out with 72suited against JJ and it cost you roughly $20k in expected value has gotta come back to you.

One week later, you hit the cooler. No worries, it's part of the game. But a couple days later, maybe it becomes a bigger cooler. Well, no worries still, the next heater is just around the corner, and it's gonna be HUGE. Then... maybe it becomes a massive cooler. Suddenly, you feel as though everything you've ever done in poker is a huge waste of time and the process is totally futile. You begin taking the swing out on other people. Your mind goes to shit. You second guess every decision, even the correct ones. Your mood changes from hand to hand. You start to give up on yourself.

This is what happens when you hit a +40 BI upswing over 160 games followed by a -57 BI downswing over 220 games.

And then hopefully, before you destroy yourself psychologically, it swings back...

This most recent downswing has easily been the worst of my entire poker career. At the $13 level, I'm -57 buyins since my last upswing. My spreadsheet is a red wasteland. It's not totally out of the realm of possibilities that it's natural, but it's nonetheless brutal. At the $13 level, I'm not even winning 1 in every 6 tourneys - my 1st place % is about 15% (at every other level it's between 18 and 22 percent) My % in 6th place is 5% higher than it is at any other level, as well. This hopefully indicates some brutally bad luck.

After dropping down, I've enjoyed a modest upswing at the $6.50 level, about +10 buyins over about 100 games. This has been a nice boost to my now-fragile ego.

I think that if I can prove to myself over 3500 games that I'm a winning player, I may become immune to any future swings like this bothering me emotionally, because I will have been through everything. Hopefully.

However, the jury's still out...

At the $3.25 level, I'm +19 buyins through 430 games
At the $6.50 level, I'm +11 buyins through 255 games
At the $13 level, I'm -24 buyins through 536 games

This is all normal stuff, when you look at it this way. It reassures me to analyze it like this. At each level, I have too little data to really conclude much of anything.

I think from now on, I'm not going to focus on my overall ROI as much until I have a lot more data. I'm about -1.5% through 1221 games.

I'm praying that I'm just experiencing the worst luck overall at the highest level and that this will straighten itself out.

The good news, I suppose, is I have over 6500 FPPs, which have an equivalent cash value of about $105. That almost cancels out my negative ROI. Almost.

Unfortunately, I can't cash them in at their highest cash value (1.6cents per FPP) until way down the road (when I have 250,000 and I'm Supernova), unless, of course I use them to freeroll an entry to the $215 multi table tourney when I have 13500 of themr. And I am considering doing that....although that really is like playing a better form of the lottery with the Sunday Million.

However, that is a tournament I've finished in 11th out of 2500 people in before...an 11th place finish that was cemented by a certain player in 6th place and 20 big blinds going all in with 7d2d against my pocket jacks preflop...jacks which would have held up to give me the chip lead going into the final table 86% of the time....but alas, it was not meant to be. It was meant to be one of the 14%...

I also have started playing more continuously, rather than in sets. It's tougher, but I think overall it will be way better to start getting used to it. It took me 1:44 to play 18 tourneys today, and I think if I do 24 continuously I can do it in about 2 hours (most of the last 15 minutes was finishing one tourney). That might allow me to play 48 tourneys a day instead of 36, which would get me to the data promised land much faster.

Current bankroll is at $511 and holding. Let's hope we can keep holding on. I do hit a cash $50 stellar reward bonus in about 800 more $6.50 tourneys...it would be sweet to cash that on a huge upswing. Time will tell...

Well, the recent trend has gone from bad to worse.

I've dropped another $170 since my last post. I've still been playing at $12+1s, trying to hang on for dear life in the hopes that this downswing would turn itself around. It hasn't. The swing is currently at -57 buyins, and I'm crying uncle at this level. I actually just finished a set that sealed my fate to step down. The bankroll is down to $449, just under 70 buyins at $6+.50. It's probably past time I switched levels.

The main reason I put off doing it for so long can be attributed to the difference in rakeback. I was easily making goldstar status at $12s, which will give me more FPPs per $1 in rake, and I was even on the precipice of platinum status. Playing $6s, I will need to seriously bust my ass just to maintain gold. Moreover, I will obviously earn half the FPPs I would playing $12s, which just well... blows.

I still do not know how much of this is bad luck. I'm starting to slowly realize that I just don't know how good of a player I am. It's very troubling to be 1100+ games into this and have this much uncertainty.

For now, I'm sporting an aggregate ROI of about -2.45%. I'm too depressed to do the rest of the math. I do have about 6000 FPPs, which has a cash value of about $100.

I'm going to ride this out through December, and try to hang onto the bankroll. I'm fairly certain that if I hit 2500 tourneys with a losing ROI, or if I go bust with my roll, I will never play poker seriously again, because it will almost certainly mean that I have a long term losing expectation at the game.

Ok. There will be a hiatus. Not sure how long, or what it will mean. Here are the bullet points:

*I may be on an outlier bad swing, where my game is suffering from so much bad luck that it appears as though I'm a losing player when I'm actually a *decent* winning player. There's no statistical chance that I'm one of the better players, but I may be ok. Basically, the jury is out on this.

* The math goes like this. Right now, I'm -1% ROI. My current bankroll is $614. My starting STT bankroll was about $700. I'm at 1065 tourneys. My SD/tourney is 11.38 (it's almost always between 1.5-2.0x average buyin). My total SD is 371.38. Let's say I'm on a HORRENDOUS run, and that my ACTUAL ROI is 15%. With 1065 tourneys at an average buyin of $8.00, I should be +$1320 with a ROI of 15%. There's 70% I'm within one SD of that total, +/- $371.38 of +$1320. It's 95% that I'm within 2 SD of that total, +/- $742.74 of +$1320. Therefore, there's a 70% chance that my current bankroll would be between $1638-$2391. There's a 95% chance that my br is between $1270-$2800. In other words, if my ACTUAL ROI was 15%, I'm on like an unfathomable outlier.

So, 15% is not too likely of an ACTUAL ROI. Which by the way, is to be expected, since the good pros beat $11 9-mans at about 11% these days. So let's take an aforementioned ACTUAL ROI of 11%. I should be at +$937 luck-neutral. Using my SD/tourney and data, there's a 70% chance my BR should be between $1266-$2008, and a 95% chance that my BR should be between $890-$2400ish. I COULD be beating these games at 11%, and on a severely outlying run (like a 2% outlier). That's also unlikely. There ARE some definite holes in my game, particularly at critical high-blind stages. I am NOT one of the best players, surely. I'd say the biggest leak is 3-way with even stacks when we get to high blinds. It is so difficult to properly evaluate those hands that quickly at that level. I need about 1000 more hours in the Wiz Tank (more on that later).

I would say that my ACTUAL ROI is most likely in between 0% and +6%, as it currently stands. I think I am at least breaking even. I have been getting crucified with bad luck, generally, so I think that I am at least breaking even. At 6%, there would be a 70% chance that I would be between $840-$1900ish, and a 95% chance I would be between $490-$2250ish.

* A +$400 swing immediately followed by a -$500 swing still makes me emotional. That's troubling.

* I need to buy about $500 worth of software, including (HAR HAR) a pc emulation program for my mac. SNG Wiz, perhaps the most vital analysis tool, is not made for mac. SNG wiz is a simulator that literally lets you recreate any situation with any blinds and any type of villain and tells you if it is a +EV or -EV play. I also need to buy pokertracker, hold em manager and probably a couple other tools.

* For now, I don't know whether stepping down to $6s makes sense, if I do continue. I don't think so. I still think it's more appropriate to stick with $13s. However, I need to do a lot of analysis, analysis I can't do until I can afford Wiz and the emulator. I still have days left of trial on pokertracker, luckily.

Lots to mull over. I'm taking at least a week off to regroup. Not sure what the future holds at this point.

Bankroll is down to $614. On a -$534 swing.

I'm not sure if, or when, I can continue.

I have a lot of reading I need to do.

There's now over a 33% chance that I am not a winning player.

This has been a very demoralizing day, on a number of levels.

I am debating cashing out and blowing the rest of the money on something tangible.

Is a -$410 swing enough to make me cry uncle? Hopefully not. More later. For now, I'm going to grab a beer.

On the bright side, I finally acheived Gold Star status.