Well, the recent trend has gone from bad to worse.

I've dropped another $170 since my last post. I've still been playing at $12+1s, trying to hang on for dear life in the hopes that this downswing would turn itself around. It hasn't. The swing is currently at -57 buyins, and I'm crying uncle at this level. I actually just finished a set that sealed my fate to step down. The bankroll is down to $449, just under 70 buyins at $6+.50. It's probably past time I switched levels.

The main reason I put off doing it for so long can be attributed to the difference in rakeback. I was easily making goldstar status at $12s, which will give me more FPPs per $1 in rake, and I was even on the precipice of platinum status. Playing $6s, I will need to seriously bust my ass just to maintain gold. Moreover, I will obviously earn half the FPPs I would playing $12s, which just well... blows.

I still do not know how much of this is bad luck. I'm starting to slowly realize that I just don't know how good of a player I am. It's very troubling to be 1100+ games into this and have this much uncertainty.

For now, I'm sporting an aggregate ROI of about -2.45%. I'm too depressed to do the rest of the math. I do have about 6000 FPPs, which has a cash value of about $100.

I'm going to ride this out through December, and try to hang onto the bankroll. I'm fairly certain that if I hit 2500 tourneys with a losing ROI, or if I go bust with my roll, I will never play poker seriously again, because it will almost certainly mean that I have a long term losing expectation at the game.