Monday, November 29, 2010

New terminology - I'm changing the RED HOLE to the RED WALL. No pun intended for you Chicago hipsters from circa 2005.

Today, I played even more tourneys - all told, 66 of 'em. My boss was actually out of the office completely, and it gave me a rare opportunity to play a couple of groups at work. Additionally, I was able to play for 2.5 hours tonight, giving me the highest single day total I've ever had. I must admit that I'm kind of mentally fried, though.

I guess the semi-bad news is that I lost $10. Oh well. I'd had 3 pretty good days in a row.

Some good news, however.

I now have a total of 805 tourneys at the two lower levels I've played at, the $3.25 and $6.50. I have about an average ROI of 4.25% at those two levels combined.

Obviously, the other bad news is that at the higher $13 level, I still have the RED WALL to contend with...536 tourneys at a -4.5% clip. I getting more comfortable with the idea that the data in this set is screwed up with a massive outlier. There's just too many statistical anomalies - the high 6th place %, the low 1st place %, and the unreal final 160 tourneys I played at that level, all things I've never seen anywhere else in my data at any level, even going back to the old days.

I can accept that I'm not one of the best players, or maybe not even much of a winning player, and that I have work to do on my game, particularly in close spots. I'm definitely still on the learning curve. However, I'm certainly not a -4.5% player at the $13 level. I might be as bad as break even, but I'm not -4.5%.

Overall, I'm still in the red - although not by much, and the % is getting smaller and smaller. So, what's my plan of attack for the RED WALL, you ask?

Well, I've hatched a scheme.

Right now, my BR is nestled at $534. That's roughly 82 buyins at the $6.50 level. Now, I do want to maintain a standing reserve of 80 buyins at the $6.50 level to swing with, simply because I'm pretty sure I can hold my own down here. I don't want to go busto needlessly by underrolling myself and taking a huge risk. So, anytime I'm below or at 80-90 buyins at the $6.50, I'm going to play exclusively at that level.

However...if I'm able to run my total up to $598, I'm going to volley a missile at the RED WALL in the form of a set of 6 $13 tourneys. It won't be any more than that, unless I have a winning set of six. However, the idea is that even if I have another disasterous set, something like 6,5,4,3,3,3, I'll still have my 80 buyin reserve to play the $6.50s with.

If I have a set that loses a little, say an x,x,x,x,1,2 distribution (where x is any non-cash), it means I lose the rake, which would be -$6 in this case. I'd still drop back down, and when I hit $598 again I'll fire my second missile of six tourneys at the RED WALL.

If I win, I'm firing an immediate second round. If I can keep it above $598, I'm going to keep firing and keep firing.

Eventually, I'm praying something sticks to the damned thing.

The good news is that I'll get more FPPs at the higher limit, so hopefully I'll be able to occasionally put my foot on the gas pedal and get to higher rewards. I have no doubt that it's still going to be an up and down ride.

I'm going to try to blog more about the non-poker things going on in my life starting tomorrow, as well. For now, I need to sleep. The data:

Beginning 11/29 bankroll: $544
End 11/29 bankroll $534
Net: -$10
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 363 / $5.81
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 7227.12 / $115.63
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1342
Average buyin: $8.08
Total amount invested: $10802.00
Total profit earned: -$155.90 (there was an error in yesterday's total)
ROI: -1.45%

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