Ok. There will be a hiatus. Not sure how long, or what it will mean. Here are the bullet points:

*I may be on an outlier bad swing, where my game is suffering from so much bad luck that it appears as though I'm a losing player when I'm actually a *decent* winning player. There's no statistical chance that I'm one of the better players, but I may be ok. Basically, the jury is out on this.

* The math goes like this. Right now, I'm -1% ROI. My current bankroll is $614. My starting STT bankroll was about $700. I'm at 1065 tourneys. My SD/tourney is 11.38 (it's almost always between 1.5-2.0x average buyin). My total SD is 371.38. Let's say I'm on a HORRENDOUS run, and that my ACTUAL ROI is 15%. With 1065 tourneys at an average buyin of $8.00, I should be +$1320 with a ROI of 15%. There's 70% I'm within one SD of that total, +/- $371.38 of +$1320. It's 95% that I'm within 2 SD of that total, +/- $742.74 of +$1320. Therefore, there's a 70% chance that my current bankroll would be between $1638-$2391. There's a 95% chance that my br is between $1270-$2800. In other words, if my ACTUAL ROI was 15%, I'm on like an unfathomable outlier.

So, 15% is not too likely of an ACTUAL ROI. Which by the way, is to be expected, since the good pros beat $11 9-mans at about 11% these days. So let's take an aforementioned ACTUAL ROI of 11%. I should be at +$937 luck-neutral. Using my SD/tourney and data, there's a 70% chance my BR should be between $1266-$2008, and a 95% chance that my BR should be between $890-$2400ish. I COULD be beating these games at 11%, and on a severely outlying run (like a 2% outlier). That's also unlikely. There ARE some definite holes in my game, particularly at critical high-blind stages. I am NOT one of the best players, surely. I'd say the biggest leak is 3-way with even stacks when we get to high blinds. It is so difficult to properly evaluate those hands that quickly at that level. I need about 1000 more hours in the Wiz Tank (more on that later).

I would say that my ACTUAL ROI is most likely in between 0% and +6%, as it currently stands. I think I am at least breaking even. I have been getting crucified with bad luck, generally, so I think that I am at least breaking even. At 6%, there would be a 70% chance that I would be between $840-$1900ish, and a 95% chance I would be between $490-$2250ish.

* A +$400 swing immediately followed by a -$500 swing still makes me emotional. That's troubling.

* I need to buy about $500 worth of software, including (HAR HAR) a pc emulation program for my mac. SNG Wiz, perhaps the most vital analysis tool, is not made for mac. SNG wiz is a simulator that literally lets you recreate any situation with any blinds and any type of villain and tells you if it is a +EV or -EV play. I also need to buy pokertracker, hold em manager and probably a couple other tools.

* For now, I don't know whether stepping down to $6s makes sense, if I do continue. I don't think so. I still think it's more appropriate to stick with $13s. However, I need to do a lot of analysis, analysis I can't do until I can afford Wiz and the emulator. I still have days left of trial on pokertracker, luckily.

Lots to mull over. I'm taking at least a week off to regroup. Not sure what the future holds at this point.