I've still been able to tread water at the $13s - to the utter delight of my rakeback rewards. It's been somewhat of a confidence booster for me as well, but not as much as I had hoped - I'm still waiting for that big upswing I know I'm due for. My bankroll has just been yo-yoing between $550 and $680. I nearly touched an OVERALL GREEN number this afternoon... at the end of my third set I was -$8 overall...but I couldn't quite push through and I slipped back a bit towards the end of the day.
Here are some interesting factoids about my experience thus far at $13s:
In my first 361 tourneys, I had a ROI of 8.39%, and was up over 30 buyins over that span.
In my last 257 tourneys, I have a ROI of -21%, and am down 54 buyins over that span.
My worst part of this was over the first 220 buyins of this current downswing, where I had a ROI of -30% and was down 61 buyins over that span.
I have won just 29 out of 257 6-man tourneys over this downswing, at little over 11% of them. My straight expected value against randoms should be $16.6%.
Did I mention that the swings are brutal?
To go back to a point a made a few days ago: As you get to higher rakeback levels, the money you make on rake is actually more than your expected ROI, even if you are one of the best players at a certain level.
Let me clarify this a bit with some data.
If I were to play $25s instead of $13s, I'd be paying enough in rake to qualify for level 4 status, PlatinumStar (currently I'm at level 3, GoldStar). Although ROI includes the rake you pay, for the purposes of this exercise, let's treat it differently. PlatinumStar players earn about 23% of the rake they pay back from the site in the form of FPPs.
At $25s, you can expect to make 8% if you are one of the top players. If I played 400 tourneys, and I earned 8% on it, I would have invested $10,000 in poker, and earned an $800 profit on my investment. The rake for $25s is $2, and the amount of money in play is $23. Clear so far?
If we consider the rake "neutral", we actually have $9,200 in live money, which turned out to be $10,000 after our $800 in profit. We therefore made 8.7% on "live money". On our $800 rake, we earned 23% in rakeback, which paid us $184 on an $800 investment (which we have already gotten back out of the site as well). We actually made a higher percentage on our rake than we did on our live money! Therefore, it should always been our objective to get as much money into rake as possible, which seems totally counter-intuitive to every notion most of us have ever had about poker.
Tomorrow is a well-deserved off day. I decided to stop exactly at 1500 tourneys today in order to use my snowboarding trip as a time for some reflection. I'm so close to break-even I can smell it...
Beginning 12/3 bankroll: $614
End 12/4 bankroll $618
Net: +$4
2 day FPP earned / cash value: 792 / $12.67
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 8552.62 / $136.84
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1500
Average buyin: $8.25
Total amount invested: $12369.50
Total profit earned: -$71.80
ROI: -0.59%
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