Not much time to post - have to run out to the weekly karaoke spread. 35 tourneys today, again -$10. Feel like I'm treading water a bit, but that's ok - it's better than losing.

An interesting fact about doing this is that even at the medium levels, it seems you actually earn more back from money in rake than you do from live money. It's very counter-intuitive. I haven't worked out all the math yet, though.

New terminology - I'm changing the RED HOLE to the RED WALL. No pun intended for you Chicago hipsters from circa 2005.

Today, I played even more tourneys - all told, 66 of 'em. My boss was actually out of the office completely, and it gave me a rare opportunity to play a couple of groups at work. Additionally, I was able to play for 2.5 hours tonight, giving me the highest single day total I've ever had. I must admit that I'm kind of mentally fried, though.

I guess the semi-bad news is that I lost $10. Oh well. I'd had 3 pretty good days in a row.

Some good news, however.

I now have a total of 805 tourneys at the two lower levels I've played at, the $3.25 and $6.50. I have about an average ROI of 4.25% at those two levels combined.

Obviously, the other bad news is that at the higher $13 level, I still have the RED WALL to contend with...536 tourneys at a -4.5% clip. I getting more comfortable with the idea that the data in this set is screwed up with a massive outlier. There's just too many statistical anomalies - the high 6th place %, the low 1st place %, and the unreal final 160 tourneys I played at that level, all things I've never seen anywhere else in my data at any level, even going back to the old days.

I can accept that I'm not one of the best players, or maybe not even much of a winning player, and that I have work to do on my game, particularly in close spots. I'm definitely still on the learning curve. However, I'm certainly not a -4.5% player at the $13 level. I might be as bad as break even, but I'm not -4.5%.

Overall, I'm still in the red - although not by much, and the % is getting smaller and smaller. So, what's my plan of attack for the RED WALL, you ask?

Well, I've hatched a scheme.

Right now, my BR is nestled at $534. That's roughly 82 buyins at the $6.50 level. Now, I do want to maintain a standing reserve of 80 buyins at the $6.50 level to swing with, simply because I'm pretty sure I can hold my own down here. I don't want to go busto needlessly by underrolling myself and taking a huge risk. So, anytime I'm below or at 80-90 buyins at the $6.50, I'm going to play exclusively at that level.

However...if I'm able to run my total up to $598, I'm going to volley a missile at the RED WALL in the form of a set of 6 $13 tourneys. It won't be any more than that, unless I have a winning set of six. However, the idea is that even if I have another disasterous set, something like 6,5,4,3,3,3, I'll still have my 80 buyin reserve to play the $6.50s with.

If I have a set that loses a little, say an x,x,x,x,1,2 distribution (where x is any non-cash), it means I lose the rake, which would be -$6 in this case. I'd still drop back down, and when I hit $598 again I'll fire my second missile of six tourneys at the RED WALL.

If I win, I'm firing an immediate second round. If I can keep it above $598, I'm going to keep firing and keep firing.

Eventually, I'm praying something sticks to the damned thing.

The good news is that I'll get more FPPs at the higher limit, so hopefully I'll be able to occasionally put my foot on the gas pedal and get to higher rewards. I have no doubt that it's still going to be an up and down ride.

I'm going to try to blog more about the non-poker things going on in my life starting tomorrow, as well. For now, I need to sleep. The data:

Beginning 11/29 bankroll: $544
End 11/29 bankroll $534
Net: -$10
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 363 / $5.81
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 7227.12 / $115.63
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1342
Average buyin: $8.08
Total amount invested: $10802.00
Total profit earned: -$155.90 (there was an error in yesterday's total)
ROI: -1.45%

Today, I decided to play continuously again. I purposely opted to play 24 tourneys in a row at two different times. To recap, "continuously" means that I start with 6, and rather than play just those 6 until all are finished and then open a new 6, I open new tourneys continuously, as I'm finished with each one, to keep 6 live at all times. The advantage is that I play quicker, so my hourly profit goes up, the disadvantage is that it's significantly more fatiguing and I probably miss more +EV spots, so my ROI probably goes down.

The first "group" of 24 was played in 2 hours and 1 minute. I kind of got crushed a bit. The first 6 tourneys finished were all out of the money, and it set the tone for the entire group. It seems as though regularly you can predict an entire session from the first 6-7 tourney run, particularly if it's either really hot or really cold. I've noticed often that a solid 6-10 block of instances either way typifies the meat of the daily story, whereas the other tourneys are usually just treading water. I'll have one block during a hot day that goes 1,1,6,4,1,1,2, and I'll be way way up, with the rest of the tourneys at a typical distribution. Conversely, I'll have one block that's 6,5,3,6,2,3,3, and I'll probably be down or hopefully even. C'est la game.

Luckily, in this case, the group as a whole didn't get much worse than that, ending at -7 buyins overall. I basically tread water after the first 6.

The second "group" of 24 was played about 5 hours later. Breaks are really required when you are playing this intensively, so it's not really possible to play for 2 hours, take 15 minutes, hit the john, grab a slice and a coke, and then sit back down and fire up another 24 tourneys for 2 more hours. Mentally and emotionally, one gets very fatigued. I played the second in 2 hours and 17 minutes, and as you would guess from the extended length, that group fared much better, + 11 buyins, for an overall +4 buyins for 48 tourneys.

2-2.5 hours seems to be the limit of good concentration. A lot of pros who go for Supernova Elite have blogged about playing 3 times a day in 2.5 hour sessions, because of the fatigue factor. Many recommend not playing more than that at once, and apparently, stats bear out that you decline rapidly after just about 150 minutes. Your brain really does get fatigued from making so many decisions so quickly. Towards the end of the second group, I did notice myself severely fatiguing, although it apparently had no negative expectation on the result. My last seven finishes were 1,5,1,2,2,1,1.

It is encouraging that I was able to simply do this today, despite whether the result was positive or negative (NO, NO, NO...I'LL TAKE THE WIN, POKER GODS! REALLY!). It's akin to distance running, something I used to do in high school. It takes a ton of conditioning to be able to run 3 miles effectively, and often you need to train by running much longer distances to build up endurance. I used to put about 1000 miles on my body every summer, often in 12 mile jaunts, just to be able to have the strength, stamina and endurance to handle running 5 kilometers at about 12 miles an hour.

Poker endurance is very similar. I've found that it's taken me a couple of months to develop the concentration and willpower to be able to play this much this often. Originally, I thought I could only handle playing 4 tourneys at a time, but through some trial and error, I was able to get up to 6. With hotkeys and the right companion software, I'm sure 8 would be no problem (I kinda like 6 for now, though). Playing 24 a day was originally my goal, but I was able to move that up to 36. Now I have my sights set on potentially doing 42-48. At first, playing continuously was too tough to manage, so I stuck with sets. Now I'm getting used to both.

I was hoping to find a way to get more tourneys in per day, and it appears that playing continuously may be the way to go to get this result. The decisions are starting to become very automatic, particularly at high blind levels. Honestly, I don't really want to play for more than 3-4 hours per day on average. Not only does it wear you out mentally, but it also just interferes with life too much on that level, and we aren't playing for enough money where it really matters that much yet.

I'm still digging myself out of what I'm now terming THE RED HOLE. I can see the top, but there's still a lot of digging to do, and I may end up slipping down again before I see the surface. Still, I'm very encouraged by 3 winning days in a row, albeit with modest returns on each day.

ADDENDUM: I snuck in 6 more tourneys while I couldn't sleep. 3,3,4,3,1,1 for +$8 more. Booyah.

Kicking it old school, here's some stats.

Beginning 11/28 bankroll: $511
End 11/28 bankroll $544
Net: +$33
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 297 / $4.75
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 6864.12 / $109.83
Current Status (Multiplier): Goldstar (2.0)
Total tourneys played: 1275
Average buyin: $8.14
Total amount invested: $10373.00
Total profit earned: -$151.30
ROI: -1.46%

My girlfriend said something funny today. She said that I should play more poker today, since she knew I enjoyed it. If only she knew....this is work, folks....

Also, only 6 days until I hit the slopes with my snowboard for the first time this season. I can't wait!

Well, I'm back. Last night, a good friend mentioned to me that even if I wasn't going to play every day, I needed to blog every day, and discuss the psychological impact of doing this.

I have, in fact, returned to playing every day, though...slowly. I finally had two days in a row where I played a "normal" cache of tourneys - thankfully at a positive clip, for once.

The swings of the game are what tend to destroy most players. One day you are feeling unstoppable, as if doing this for a living will be the easiest thing since sliced bread. You believe every heater will be followed by an even better one. You even tell yourself that you're "owed" even more than you've already gotten out of poker, because you've "paid your dues" and that one time the guy sucked out with 72suited against JJ and it cost you roughly $20k in expected value has gotta come back to you.

One week later, you hit the cooler. No worries, it's part of the game. But a couple days later, maybe it becomes a bigger cooler. Well, no worries still, the next heater is just around the corner, and it's gonna be HUGE. Then... maybe it becomes a massive cooler. Suddenly, you feel as though everything you've ever done in poker is a huge waste of time and the process is totally futile. You begin taking the swing out on other people. Your mind goes to shit. You second guess every decision, even the correct ones. Your mood changes from hand to hand. You start to give up on yourself.

This is what happens when you hit a +40 BI upswing over 160 games followed by a -57 BI downswing over 220 games.

And then hopefully, before you destroy yourself psychologically, it swings back...

This most recent downswing has easily been the worst of my entire poker career. At the $13 level, I'm -57 buyins since my last upswing. My spreadsheet is a red wasteland. It's not totally out of the realm of possibilities that it's natural, but it's nonetheless brutal. At the $13 level, I'm not even winning 1 in every 6 tourneys - my 1st place % is about 15% (at every other level it's between 18 and 22 percent) My % in 6th place is 5% higher than it is at any other level, as well. This hopefully indicates some brutally bad luck.

After dropping down, I've enjoyed a modest upswing at the $6.50 level, about +10 buyins over about 100 games. This has been a nice boost to my now-fragile ego.

I think that if I can prove to myself over 3500 games that I'm a winning player, I may become immune to any future swings like this bothering me emotionally, because I will have been through everything. Hopefully.

However, the jury's still out...

At the $3.25 level, I'm +19 buyins through 430 games
At the $6.50 level, I'm +11 buyins through 255 games
At the $13 level, I'm -24 buyins through 536 games

This is all normal stuff, when you look at it this way. It reassures me to analyze it like this. At each level, I have too little data to really conclude much of anything.

I think from now on, I'm not going to focus on my overall ROI as much until I have a lot more data. I'm about -1.5% through 1221 games.

I'm praying that I'm just experiencing the worst luck overall at the highest level and that this will straighten itself out.

The good news, I suppose, is I have over 6500 FPPs, which have an equivalent cash value of about $105. That almost cancels out my negative ROI. Almost.

Unfortunately, I can't cash them in at their highest cash value (1.6cents per FPP) until way down the road (when I have 250,000 and I'm Supernova), unless, of course I use them to freeroll an entry to the $215 multi table tourney when I have 13500 of themr. And I am considering doing that....although that really is like playing a better form of the lottery with the Sunday Million.

However, that is a tournament I've finished in 11th out of 2500 people in before...an 11th place finish that was cemented by a certain player in 6th place and 20 big blinds going all in with 7d2d against my pocket jacks preflop...jacks which would have held up to give me the chip lead going into the final table 86% of the time....but alas, it was not meant to be. It was meant to be one of the 14%...

I also have started playing more continuously, rather than in sets. It's tougher, but I think overall it will be way better to start getting used to it. It took me 1:44 to play 18 tourneys today, and I think if I do 24 continuously I can do it in about 2 hours (most of the last 15 minutes was finishing one tourney). That might allow me to play 48 tourneys a day instead of 36, which would get me to the data promised land much faster.

Current bankroll is at $511 and holding. Let's hope we can keep holding on. I do hit a cash $50 stellar reward bonus in about 800 more $6.50 tourneys...it would be sweet to cash that on a huge upswing. Time will tell...

Well, the recent trend has gone from bad to worse.

I've dropped another $170 since my last post. I've still been playing at $12+1s, trying to hang on for dear life in the hopes that this downswing would turn itself around. It hasn't. The swing is currently at -57 buyins, and I'm crying uncle at this level. I actually just finished a set that sealed my fate to step down. The bankroll is down to $449, just under 70 buyins at $6+.50. It's probably past time I switched levels.

The main reason I put off doing it for so long can be attributed to the difference in rakeback. I was easily making goldstar status at $12s, which will give me more FPPs per $1 in rake, and I was even on the precipice of platinum status. Playing $6s, I will need to seriously bust my ass just to maintain gold. Moreover, I will obviously earn half the FPPs I would playing $12s, which just well... blows.

I still do not know how much of this is bad luck. I'm starting to slowly realize that I just don't know how good of a player I am. It's very troubling to be 1100+ games into this and have this much uncertainty.

For now, I'm sporting an aggregate ROI of about -2.45%. I'm too depressed to do the rest of the math. I do have about 6000 FPPs, which has a cash value of about $100.

I'm going to ride this out through December, and try to hang onto the bankroll. I'm fairly certain that if I hit 2500 tourneys with a losing ROI, or if I go bust with my roll, I will never play poker seriously again, because it will almost certainly mean that I have a long term losing expectation at the game.

Ok. There will be a hiatus. Not sure how long, or what it will mean. Here are the bullet points:

*I may be on an outlier bad swing, where my game is suffering from so much bad luck that it appears as though I'm a losing player when I'm actually a *decent* winning player. There's no statistical chance that I'm one of the better players, but I may be ok. Basically, the jury is out on this.

* The math goes like this. Right now, I'm -1% ROI. My current bankroll is $614. My starting STT bankroll was about $700. I'm at 1065 tourneys. My SD/tourney is 11.38 (it's almost always between 1.5-2.0x average buyin). My total SD is 371.38. Let's say I'm on a HORRENDOUS run, and that my ACTUAL ROI is 15%. With 1065 tourneys at an average buyin of $8.00, I should be +$1320 with a ROI of 15%. There's 70% I'm within one SD of that total, +/- $371.38 of +$1320. It's 95% that I'm within 2 SD of that total, +/- $742.74 of +$1320. Therefore, there's a 70% chance that my current bankroll would be between $1638-$2391. There's a 95% chance that my br is between $1270-$2800. In other words, if my ACTUAL ROI was 15%, I'm on like an unfathomable outlier.

So, 15% is not too likely of an ACTUAL ROI. Which by the way, is to be expected, since the good pros beat $11 9-mans at about 11% these days. So let's take an aforementioned ACTUAL ROI of 11%. I should be at +$937 luck-neutral. Using my SD/tourney and data, there's a 70% chance my BR should be between $1266-$2008, and a 95% chance that my BR should be between $890-$2400ish. I COULD be beating these games at 11%, and on a severely outlying run (like a 2% outlier). That's also unlikely. There ARE some definite holes in my game, particularly at critical high-blind stages. I am NOT one of the best players, surely. I'd say the biggest leak is 3-way with even stacks when we get to high blinds. It is so difficult to properly evaluate those hands that quickly at that level. I need about 1000 more hours in the Wiz Tank (more on that later).

I would say that my ACTUAL ROI is most likely in between 0% and +6%, as it currently stands. I think I am at least breaking even. I have been getting crucified with bad luck, generally, so I think that I am at least breaking even. At 6%, there would be a 70% chance that I would be between $840-$1900ish, and a 95% chance I would be between $490-$2250ish.

* A +$400 swing immediately followed by a -$500 swing still makes me emotional. That's troubling.

* I need to buy about $500 worth of software, including (HAR HAR) a pc emulation program for my mac. SNG Wiz, perhaps the most vital analysis tool, is not made for mac. SNG wiz is a simulator that literally lets you recreate any situation with any blinds and any type of villain and tells you if it is a +EV or -EV play. I also need to buy pokertracker, hold em manager and probably a couple other tools.

* For now, I don't know whether stepping down to $6s makes sense, if I do continue. I don't think so. I still think it's more appropriate to stick with $13s. However, I need to do a lot of analysis, analysis I can't do until I can afford Wiz and the emulator. I still have days left of trial on pokertracker, luckily.

Lots to mull over. I'm taking at least a week off to regroup. Not sure what the future holds at this point.

Bankroll is down to $614. On a -$534 swing.

I'm not sure if, or when, I can continue.

I have a lot of reading I need to do.

There's now over a 33% chance that I am not a winning player.

This has been a very demoralizing day, on a number of levels.

I am debating cashing out and blowing the rest of the money on something tangible.

Is a -$410 swing enough to make me cry uncle? Hopefully not. More later. For now, I'm going to grab a beer.

On the bright side, I finally acheived Gold Star status.

Well, I've had a couple of really down days, which is not to be unexpected. It's quite odd how insane heaters always tend to be followed by insane coolers and vice versa. It's a really tilting aspect of STT poker.

I hit a milestone today: 1000 tournaments played. I'm happy to say that I still (barely) have a positive expectation.

I have an idea that I'm still getting quite a bit more bad luck than good, but we won't know until 3500 tournments in.

Beginning 11/13 bankroll: $1127
End 11/14 bankroll $843
Net: -$284
Two day FPP earned / cash value: 594 / $9.50
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 4884.31 / $78.14
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 1010
Average buyin: $7.83
Total amount invested: $7904
Total profit earned: $147.90
ROI: 1.90%

From the sick heater....to the just plain sick!

I inadvertantly took yesterday off, due to being laid up with the stomach flu from Thursday Night until this morning. Considering the run I had been on, it wasn't the worst thing in the world. Going to get back on the tables today.

After watching Food Inc. several months ago, and considering exactly what I had eaten over the past several days, I can't help but blame this particular illness on the fast food I ate on Wednesday afternoon, at my boss's insistance. I think next time I'll re-insist that we eat somewhere else.

It's official - we have moved into the realm of SICK HEATER™.
I'm frying an egg on a sidewalk of ebola.
I'm runnin' so good I'm walkin'.
And so on.

I finished early today, as I was able to play out my daily sets during the afternoon, which frees up my evening.

Certainly this is absurdly unsustainable, but let's hope the SICK HEATER™ lasts just a couple of days longer.

I'm off to my martial arts class, which will be immediately followed by an advanced black belt only class. Then it's a quiet evening with a pizza and some TV.

Oh, and I'm running so well that my boss even gave me tomorrow off, totally unprompted, randomly.

The SICK™:

Beginning 11/11 bankroll: $980
End 11/11 bankroll $1127
Net: +$147
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 297 / $4.75
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 4290.31 / $68.64
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 938
Average buyin: $7.42
Total amount invested: $6968
Total profit earned: $432.70
ROI: 6.21%

I realized today that if I were to flip a coin 11 times in a row, the odds of it being tails every time are approximately 1 in 4,096. Huh. Kinda makes you think about the other night...

On the music front, I received an email this week that one of my former bands, The Red Plastic Buddha, had completed tracking and mixing on their sophomore effort, All Out Revolutions. I'm quite excited about this album, as I had a great deal of input on the initial songwriting and arrangement process. I also played almost all the keyboards (if not all?) on the album. Early mixes were quite promising.

On the poker front - another great day at the tables. Today, I won 9 heads up situations in a row and 12 of 14 overall. Btw, the odds of 9 in a row happening with a 50% probability of each are 1 in 1,024.

Is the variance/standard deviation really THIS big? Hard to know.

On the martial arts front, another class tonight. Aiming for 4 in a row this week. Hopefully both the poker and the martial arts stay hot.


The good:

Beginning 11/10 bankroll: $836
End 11/10 bankroll $980
Net: +$144
Today's FPP earned / cash value: 297 / $4.75
Total FPP accrued / cash value: 3993.31 / $63.89
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 902
Average buyin: $7.20
Total amount invested: $6500
Total profit earned: $284.70
ROI: 4.38%

As I mentioned before, I practice a martial art discipline known as Mu Yae Do. It's difficult to describe to most people, as it is a synthesis between 8 different martial arts. Apparently, we learn more forms than almost any other dojo, chiefly because in addition to the Tae Kwon Do forms, we also learn Kung Fu forms, Tang Soo Do forms, and Karate forms. I'm only a little over 4 years into my study, and I already know 32 different forms. Most 1st degree black belts at other places learn about 10-12 forms.

Forms resemble a floor exercise routine, but with martial arts motions. Some of the motions take years to perfect.

The form I'm currently learning is called Kum Kong. Apparently there are not any videos of this particular form online, but I did find a video of my next highest form, Palgwe Chil Jang.

As a result of my martial arts studies, I have been able to collect myself far better than I used to be able to. I woke up this morning after last night's disaster, and reflected in bed for awhile. I pondered the decision that I made to move down last night, and something about it just didn't feel quite right, intuitively. I reflected on it for a good 20 minutes, then pulled out a pad of paper and set to work.

I recalled the entire evening with sadness. I ended last night's implosion at $679. That's 105 buyins remaining at the $6.50 level, and $53 buyins at $13. Technically speaking, I would be severely underrolled if I remained at the higher level. I despaired. Most pros recommend that you roll yourself such that you can withstand a -100 buyin swing.

However...

I had already experienced a -27 buyin swing from $1014 to $679. Hmmm. If I dropped down, I would technically have 127 buyins to be swung with, the 27 I had already lost, and the 100 I had left at the lower level. Therefore, if I remained at the higher level until I was on a 52 buyin downswing at the higher level (which would put me around $338), I would STILL have 52 buyins at the lower level. That's over 100 buyins! I realized that I could stay at the higher level after all!

This gave me some confidence, as not only did it mean if I hit a swing back, I could make it up more easily, but it also meant that my reasoning was still operating on a sound level. However, I was still a little psychologically shaken from the 0/11 I went heads up yesterday. I nonetheless resolved to clear my mind and approach the tables with new energy. I thus entered the ring...

...and promptly lost the first four tournaments I played. 6th, 5th, 4th, 4th. I was really sunk now. What happens when this cooler continues? Will I consider dropping all the way down to $3s???? The psychological noise started.

Luckily, I had two tourneys left in my set, and both were running ok. I had the chip lead heads up in one, and was even stacked with three left in the other. My pulse was racing as the heads up battle on the right heated up. Me vs. another player, mano a mano. This is truly poker at its best. The blinds rose to 200/400, and usually, this means push or fold with any stack, considering the number of chips in play. I woke up with KQ, a stack of 5000, and the small blind/button. I correctly pushed my chips in the center....and villain correctly called with AT. He flopped an A....but I turned my J and rivered my T for my first win in almost 48 hours. Of course, it wasn't the best situation, but after all the bad luck I had experienced on monday, I was willing to take anything.

Almost simultaneously, I ended up heads up as the shortstack in my other table. I noted that my villain was severely aggro, and would take literally any completed BB and raise all in with it. Three hands in, I had 1/4 of the chips and woke up with AA. I knew if I could just get him to put his chips in the center and take it down, I would win this tourney too. I limped from the small blind, and without blinking he raised all in. I called as quickly as possible and watched him flip up J6....

and promptly hit a flop of 66Q. I received no help on the turn or river. Because of my earlier win, this didn't hit me that hard. However, as I uncapped my pen to write the result, the pen slipped out of my hand and flew across the room through a 1-inch crevice between two desks that made it impossible to retrieve. The chances of that happening are....well, they resemble the chances that J6o has vs. AA all-in preflop. I couldn't help but laugh out loud.

I won't bore you with the rest of the details. I ran really well today, at the HIGHER limit. I regained almost all of my losses back from the previous day. I need to get used to $150-$200 swings at this limit, because it looks like they are fairly routine. I did play 45 tourneys today, over four 60-90 minute sessions, to make up for more lost ground from last weekend. Only need to make up about 17 more tourneys to get back on pace.

I also incidentally went to my martial arts class, and I ran pretty good there too. I even remembered almost every form I had to teach tonight. I'm excited about my next test, which will mean a promotion to high-rank assitant instructor. I'm only 3 quarters away from 2nd degree.


The good:

Beginning 11/9 bankroll: $679
End 11/9 bankroll $836
Net: +$157
Today's FPP earned/cash value: 371.25/$5.94
total FPP accrued/cash value: 3696.31/$59.14
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 866
Average buyin: $6.96
Total amount invested: $6032.00
Total profit earned: $140.70
ROI: 2.33%

It's time for a philosophical post.

In my former life, I was dedicated to being a musician/producer. I ran a boutique indie record label for 15 years called Spade Kitty Records. I also played in four bands, mostly as a guitarist. These days, I've scaled way back on the music, mostly because it's become impossible to market and sell recorded media in the 2000s, but also because I was lacking in the personal growth department, and I wanted to try some new things (such as this poker experiment). I figured that spending 15 years on tilt in the music industry, trying in vain to get anyone to pay attention to any of the 10-12 bands I performed in would prep me for anything I would face later.

Man, I hope it did.

What a disaster of a day. I think I reinvented the word "cooler" today. William H. Macy might as well have been perched on my damn shoulder.

Remember that rant about heads up? I ran pretty bad in heads up play today - 0 for 11. Check that - I ran awful. That's never happened before. I didn't win a single one of the 37 tourneys I played in. Overall, the numbers read like a fallout shelter report. -$205. The really terrible news is that I'm probably dropping down to $6.50s while I build a little cushion back to jump up again...hopefully. It's tough to have faith after days like today.

I did have a lot of bad luck today, but there were some spots I need to re-examine, so I'll be spending some time reading some hand histories tomorrow. Suffice it to say, I had a lot of things not go my way.

The pros recommend that you have 100 buyins to withstand the variance, as it is possible for good players to have 100 buyin downswings. Not likely, but possible. After I had my second unsuccessful foray into cash, I bought back in, got my roll up to about $750, and jumped up to $13s a little prematurely - with only about 65ish buyins. That's perfectly ok - provided you are willing to drop back down if you go on a cooler.

These several words keep haunting me in the 2+2 poker forums STT FAQ:

"2000 tournament break-even stretches have been noted."

Yikes. It's not a matter of if that happens, it's a matter of when...

I went on a heater and got it up to 90 buyins, initially, which is where my BR topped out for the moment - at $1014. Then I went on this current -27 buyin cooler over the next 200 tourneys.

See, it makes sense to jump up shortrolled a bit on buyin number as long as you are willing to drop down. By paying more rake, you are earning rakeback faster, and if you hit 100 of the previous limits buy-in, you simply drop back down.

Unfortunately, it appears it's time to drop back down.

The ugly:

Beginning 11/8 bankroll: $883
End 11/8 bankroll $679
Net: -$204
Net FPP earned/cash value: 305.25/$4.92
total FPP accrued/cash value: 3325.06/$53.20
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 821
Average buyin: $6.63
Total amount invested: $5447.00
Total profit earned: -$15.90
ROI: -0.3%

Small points of strategy to impart:

1) About 400 tourneys into this, I figured out that completing the small blind for "pot odds" always, always sucks. Always. It's one of those things that tourney players need to learn by doing repetitively. The first thing you should look at in a 6-man tourney is your position. The second thing you should look at is your cards. Playing hands like 10-7 suited in the small blind because five players limped really sucks. You are always out of position, and any draw you hit has you guessing ranges for virtually your whole stack. Top pair bad kicker sucks. Other top pair other bad kicker sucks. Bottom two pair can really suck. Never do this. I probably play my small blind at a full ring something like 3% of the time and usually it's with AQ+ and I'm not happy about playing the hand.

2) I can't think of a hand outside of small pocket pairs that I don't enter a pot raising with if I'm first in. Limping sucks. It really, really, really, really does. Trust me on this. Calling raises also generally sucks, but it's necessary some of the time.

On top of all this, I had a low grade fever all day. As John Darnielle says, it's nothing that some coffee won't fix.

On the music front, I'd like to close with my favorite
Guided by Voices song from the Do the Collapse era. I think it's appropriate. I will try, Bob. I will try.

24 tourneys later, I made $5 more today. I'm bushed. Some notes:

Some people play tourneys in sets, some play continuously. Playing in sets mean that you play a group until the last of the group is finished, eventually focusing on just one tournament. Playing continuously means that you open a new tourney every time you bust out of one.

I prefer to play in sets, personally. There's a longstanding debate about which is better. Playing continuously usually increases your hourly rate, because you are constantly playing the max number of tables you are comfortable playing at one time. However, the increased hourly is almost certainly at the expense of your ROI, because by playing in sets you can better focus on the later stages as you are down to fewer tables and make arguably better decisions. There's also an increased fatigue factor, IMO, that comes into play when you play continuously, although you get finished with your daily grind much more quickly.

Currently, I play sets of 6 tourneys. I fire up a group of 6, and then whenever I bust out of one, I'm down to 5, then 4, until I'm down to just one. The only exception is when I bust out very early in a tourney, then I'll fire up a replacement (or as many as I need to, if I'm in the first or second round and bust out of more than 1 because I'm running into a brick wall) Typically, a set of 6 takes between 35 and 45 minutes to complete. Obviously, the better the result, the longer it generally takes.

Tonight, I fired up 4 sets of 6, and it took me exactly 2 hours and 39 minutes to complete. Not bad at all. This morning, I played 34 tourneys (I forget exactly why I landed on that number - I think it's because I played semi-continuously for a while) in about 3 hours and 53 minutes. All in all, I played about 5 and half hours today, and a total of 58 tournaments. That's about 10 an hour. It seems as though I can probably play more than I originally figured in a day, maybe upwards of 40 tourneys in 4 hours. For now, I think I'm going to try to keep it around 36 average, just to take it easier on myself while I settle into the routine. I will fall behind schedule a bit, because on Friday and Saturday I ran a 50 tourney deficit due to other conflicts, and I was only able to make up 22 of those 50 that I missed today. I hope to make those back up as the week goes on, if I can find time.

My overall swing today was an interesting microcosm of poker psychology. I went way up this morning, having a mini-heater (won 3 of my first 6) that resulted in a instant $55 upswing. My confidence soared. I treaded water for the next 30 tourneys, telling myself the next heater was right around the corner. Then, I had a 14 tourney massive downswing where I couldn't avoid a 3-outter to save my life. It made me slightly question reality, mutter to myself, envision buying a gun and noose and strangling several virtual players. Nevertheless, I remained composed. Finally, I regained my original upswing with the recapitulation in my final 4 tourneys, finishing the day 2,1,1,2, to finish up $63 for the day.

A sidenote - It occurs to me that I have not explained the structure of the tourney I play. I play Turbo 6-max No Limit Hold Em tourneys. Turbo means they have a fast structure, so they take little time, compared to normal tourneys. The top 2 out of 6 people get paid. 1st gets 65%, 2nd gets 35%. You would think that if you get into the money at either first or second or both at a higher rate than 17-18% (1/6 is 16.666%, so you'd be "beating" the avg), you'd make a lot of money. Not true. The critical thing in this structure is how you play heads up. First place is worth almost twice second place's prize money. If you play well heads up, you do well. If you suck playing heads up, you will not win very much, if at all. If you're in between, you're in between.

So far heads up, at all the limits I've played at combined, I'm 156 in first and 135 in second. Not the dominating disparity I had hoped for initially, but hopefully it will widen. I had an amazing heads up record at non-turbo 30s back in 06, but it was only a 500 sample. It was something like 60%/40%.

Anyway, today's data.

Beginning 11/7 bankroll: $820
End 11/7 bankroll $883
Net: +$63
Net FPP earned/cash value: 478.5/$7.71
total FPP accrued/cash value: 3019.81/$48.70
Current Status (Multiplier): Silverstar (1.5)
Total tourneys played: 784
Average buyin: $6.33
Total amount invested: $4966.00
Total profit earned: $187.90
ROI: 3.78%

So far, so good today. I'm going to attempt to "make up" for my day off by playing two 3-4 hour sessions. The first went fairly smoothly - up 4+ buyins over 34 $12+1 tourneys (+$58)

So. A lot of you have probably wondered how this whole system will work in detail. Rather than attempt to explain this over and over and over again, let me take you through the process and my thinking throughout.

Like most websites that host poker games, Pokerstars has a VIP program for its regular players. Pokerstars will award you VIP points for every dollar they take in rake at their website. For tournament players like myself, the number of points is 5.5 VIP points per $1 in rake.

So, what is rake? Rake is what the website charges you to host each poker game they run. In tournament games, typically the rake is an additional 10% of the buyin or less. For example, at the level that I currently play at, the games cost $12 apiece. The corresponding rake that the website charges is an additional dollar, so the actual buyin costs $13. Only $12 of my dollars are in play - the website keeps the other dollar. However, they give me 5.5 VIP points for the $1.

These VIP points (VPP) have no value, but they correspondingly earn you Frequent Player Points (FPP), which do. Depending on how often you play, you are granted a corresponding monthly level that multiplies the VPPs into FPPs. At the bottom of the barrel, each VPP only earns you 1 corresponding FPP. At the second level, Silver Star, acheived after you earn 750 VPP in a month (pay $125ish in rake in a month), you now earn 1.5 FPPs per VPP. At Gold Star (3000 VPP/$600 in rake paid over a month) you now earn 2.0 FPPs per VPP. At Platinum Star (7500 VPP/$1250 rake) you earn 2.5 FPPs per VPP. The monthly totals carry you over to one month past the month you earned the status at, so that you can maintain a status. For example, if I earn Platinum Star in December, it's good through January 31st, and as long as I earn enough to maintain it in January, I'm good through February.

The big jump is when you hit the two annual levels - Supernova at 100,000 yearly VPP, and Supernova Elite at 1,000,000 yearly VPPs. At Supernova, you earn 3.5 FPPs per VPP, and at Supernova Elite, you earn 4.5 FPPs per VPPs and hit a boatload of other free bonuses. Those two require you to contribute a considerable amount to rake - about $18,000 in Supernova, and about $180,000 for SNE.

I won't take you through all the math, but because my Return on Investment (which incorporates the rake into it) is hopefully positive, the FPPs can be exchanged for cash (at a rate of approximately 1.6 cents per FPP) which will simply add to my bankroll. I can then theoretically play at a higher level, earn more corresponding VPP by paying more rake, acheive another status increase, get more bonuses and a higher rate of FPP return, reinvest, jump another level, jump VIP statuses, and so on.

Provided I am a player with a positive expectation, that is.

I will hopefully start January at the $23 + $2 level. I need more of a bankroll before I can get there - probably $1600 will be enough to start testing the waters. I hope to play 1000 tournaments a month to start, which will take me roughly 1300 hours during the month (4 hours per day). Playing at that level, I will be able to earn 11,000 VPPs to start, which will put me at the Platinum Star level. This will correspondingly earn me 27,500 FPPs per month, a cash equivalent of $400. I can't trade them in until I hit 250,000, but that obviously won't take long. I should be able to move up (if I'm able to earn a 5% expectation at the $25 level) by late March or early April, and begin playing the $39s and paying $3 in rakeback. I get even more VPPs. Even more FPPs. Paying $3 in rake, I would earn something like 40,000 FPPs a month - about $640. By June, hopefully I will be up to $60s and paying $5 in rake, which would then earn me $1100 a month. In late June of 2011, I will hit Supernova, and begin to seriously accrue more FPP and $$$$$.

Using conservative estimates, and reinvesting 100% of my earnings back into poker, I should hit the $119 level sometime in Sept. At this point, I am not going to be counting on making any ROI - I have put in all zeroes (I think I used 1.5% for 60s - allegedly good players beat them at 3%).

What makes ALL THE money is the 49.5 VPPs and 175 FPPs I will be making PER TOURNAMENT. That's right, every tourney I enter, Pokerstars is essentially paying me $3 at that point. You do the math - $3 per tourney, $3000 per month....all I have to do is break even.

Starting with Supernova Status in 2012, I can maintain it as long as I play at a Platinum level every month, which will be easy. At that point, I can jump to $235s and make my final run towards Supernova Elite, which will mean $115,000-$140,000 in bonuses.

For now, I'm still down at $878. However, things are chugging along...I just gotta keep getting it in the center in good spots.

This was composed yesterday... (Saturday November 6th)

It's 8:43am on a Saturday morning, and I'm waiting outside of a scene
shop to attend an excruciating 7 hour work seminar.

My day job is difficult to explain so that people remember exactly
what I do, for some reason. I work for United Scenic Artists and
represent theatrical designers and scenic artists in negotiating
contracts on their behalf, and also process their benefits. Basically,
it's an office job. I've been there for ten years, and now they are
grooming me for my boss' job. This means an increase in annoying work - the kind of stuff that makes any wanna-be-invisible office minion groan, such as showing up on a Saturday morning to do 7 hours of health and safety training.

I sincerely hope that this will be the last one of these I ever have
to attend. They are held once every three years, and I have other
plans for 2013...

On the poker front, I ran just about as bad as possible Friday. The good news is that 90% of it was due to bad luck, ie getting cracked while being all-in and dominating my opponent. I had kings cracked by tens, I had ak lose to two unders twice in a row, i got set over setted, couldn't win a mathematically sound push to burst the bubble to save my life. For those that don't understand lingo yet, that last comment means that I finished 3rd place in the tournament (top 2 are the only ones to get paid) like 6-7 times out of 24.

The great news is that I never went on tilt, and that my bankroll is
allegedly protected by having enough backup to withstand the variance.
Still there's nothing quite like a little -$300 (24 buyins!) swing to make you
think a bit. Luckily, I brought it back up towards the end and I'm back to
about $820. I have Saturday off as I do this glorious minion-groaning training. We will
see what Sunday holds...

So, without further ado....

The Goal
To build my current $1000 bankroll into $150,000 by December 31st, 2012. Yes, it really is that simple.

The Method
Playing (at least) 1000 6-man turbo sit n go (SNG) tournaments a month for the next 24 months, starting at the $12+1 level, and eventually moving up to $25 (Jan 2011), $39 (Mar 2011), $60 (May 2011), $119 (Sept 2011), $235 (Jan 2012) and finally $565 (August 2012). Earning a conservative return on investment for each given level. Simultaneously raking back enough to move up the ranks at Pokerstars in both VIP status and playing level. Gaining Supernova level by June 2011. Gaining Supernova Elite level by September 2012.

The Perks
The implications of SNE are approximately $100,000-$200,000 worth of free stuff, indicated in detailed form at http://www.fpppro.com

The Other Goal
Ultimately...

Becoming a professional tournament poker player by January 1st, 2013.
Oh, and also to keep performing and writing with my two bands (Gentlemen of Obscurity and Roxy Swain) and to continue to move up the ranks in my Martial Arts discipline.

Ok that's all good. How the heck are you gonna do this?
I mean, the Main Goal, smartass.

Great question. I don't even know if it's possible, to be honest. The good news is that I have some data that suggests that I'm a winning MTT (Multi Table Tournaments, where the field is large and unrestricted, but the tournament goes off at a set time) and SNG (Sit and Go, where a set number of players play whenever the maximum number sits down at a single table) poker player. The bad news is that I don't have enough data yet to know for sure.

Some background: I started playing poker (more seriously) in about 2002 at Paradise Poker. After taking a lot of lumps, I read a lot of literature, and ultimately developed into a winning tournament player in 2005. I switched to Stars. I subsequently had a great run of success in 2006, culminating in a 1st place finish in a $320 tournament worth a $20,000 payout.

However, as it is with many poker players, my successes did not necessarily indicate that I had an airtight lock on the fundamentals of the game. As I continued to play, at a more dedicated level, I experienced some humbling results. To be honest, much of it was the brutal swings that comprise MTT variance, but some of it was my own inability to grow as a player at that time.

After my initial success, I was not in a great mindset to learn more about the game. Narcissitically, I decided that my small run totally justified my long-term ability. I crassly (and quite embarrassingly) spoke out on online forums against proven pros, who were attempting to school me in finer points that I decided instead to boneheadedly overlook.

To borrow a phrase from Adam Yauch, on this particular point, I was the dictionary definition of the word spastic.

I pressed. I ran bad. I pressed some more. I ran worse. As good as February of 2006 was for me, you'd be hard pressed to find a worse MTT month in anyone's log than my March of 2006.

Unsurprisingly, over the course of the next 5 months, I lost about 1/3rd of my live bankroll back, and decided to stop playing altogether in late July of 2006, after an unremarkable appearance at a World Series event (no, not the main - and I did play well but got cold-decked). Ultimately, the swings of the game were beginning to severely affect my overall well-being by that time. I was an emotional wasteland, and not all of it was due to poker. I was also going through a difficult separation process that ultimately ended in divorce.

I drifted for a couple of months that summer, but landed squarely on my feet, unexpectedly dedicating myself to the study of the martial art Mu Yae Do. I'm happy to say that in September of 2009, after 3.5 years of dedication, I was awarded a 1st Dan Black Belt in that discipline. As we speak, I've progressed even further, and expect to be a 2nd Dan Black Belt in September of 2011. I digress.

The point is, I have a background in poker, albeit with a 3.5 year hiatus.

In Sept of 2010, I started playing poker again quite unexpectedly. I had not played the game seriously in years, and had no real live bankroll to speak of. However, I happened to be on a Mediterranean cruise, and for reasons stemming mostly from boredom, I found myself in the casino some. Suddenly I was playing a lot of poker, and suddenly I was also discovering something I had completely forgotten. I was actually a pretty damned good player, and an excellent tournament player. Despite a bad structure, I took first in the cruise tourney and won a brisk $1100.

After I returned home, I reviewed my meticulous spreadsheets from 2006. I started getting excited. I could see this working. I am in a better place mentally. I am more mature. I'm willing to plug the leaks. After initially discovering that my cash game STILL needs a little more work in the Poker Hospital, I decided to do a lot of research about what kind of living I could make playing SNGs, something that I had a pretty good success rate at in 2006, albeit with a relatively small sample. After doing the math, I figured out that with the perks of rakeback, and with a dedicated mindset, I might actually be able to achieve making a living doing this quite easily.

So, to make an extremely long story short, I'm gonna do it like this:

So far, I've played 690 6-man turbo SNGs at various levels. My average buyin is $5.43. My average return on investment thus far is 8.04%. I won't get into all the complicated math at this point, but trust me on this...2500 tourneys is considered an iffy range to build a confidence interval of an expected ROI.

Essentially, I won't know if I'm making money for real until January, when I will have played a total of 3000ish tourneys.

However, my hunch is that I'm beating the game pretty well, though. I'm playing better poker than I have in a long time, possibly ever before. I'm analyzing my play - and I'm studying outside of playing. Even in the short time that I've been back, my game has already improved.

Over the next two months, I'm hopefully going to build $1000 to $2200. Playing 2000 more $12 +1 sit and gos, with a ROI of 5% (very conservative for that limit), I should be able to do this. I also earn two $50 bonuses from Pokerstars, as well as FPPs, which can be traded for cash, which can be emergency bankroll supplements if I need them. I'm ultimately hoping to save those FPPs, as I will detail later.

Once I jump to $25s (by january 1st, hopefully more like mid december), maintaining Platinum Star status should be easy, which increases my rakeback status. Once I hit Supernova in mid 2011, my rakeback blows up, and obviously SNE is a whole 'nother universe. In my math (which I will detail in my next post) I dropped my ROI down to 0% once I hit $119s - that's right, I'm not expecting to do anything more than break even. Rakeback pays my entire salary. I turn $2200 in $32000 by December 2011, and $32000 in $150000 by December 2012.

So that's the plan. Now back to 6-tabling...

Against my better judgement, I've decided to start a blog. This blog will mostly be about poker, in particular the quest for 2011 Supernova status on Pokerstars, and subsequently, if the plan goes well, my 2012 run at Supernova Elite status.

Fortunately for you, beyond the poker lingo, boring statistics and documented keyboard-smashing swings, there will be some other observations about the music industry, about martial arts, and about my bizarre, peculiar life in general. These observations will mostly be about the various musical projects I'm involved in, and the martial art discipline Mu Yae Do, but they will also contain some random observations.

Enjoy.