Thursday, December 23, 2010

2,000 tourneys. Unfortunately, not quite the results I had hoped for, but not totally disasterous. I finished in 3rd place in 12 of my last 22 tournaments, which was a just a little bit disheartening.

Current Bankroll: $852.68
FPP Balance / cash value: 13864.62 / $221.83
Total tourneys played: 2,000
Average buyin: $9.33
Total amount invested: $18,657.50
Total poker profit earned: $92.60
Total additional cash bonuses earned: $100.00
ROI (including cash bonuses and points) : 0.50% (2.22%)

Primary 2011 Goal:
Supernova Status (100,000 VIP Points at Pokerstars) overall, PlatinumStar status (7,500 VIP Points) each month.

Method:
I'm going to pad my bankroll by adding $500 after the first of the year to open the year with $1,352. This represents roughly 80 (actually 79.5) buyins at an artificial level of $17 per tourney, exactly 1/3rd of the way between $13 and $25. Initially, the plan is to play 350 tourneys per month at the $25 level and 700 tourneys a month at $13. If I at least tread water or lose less than 50 BI, I will earn 7700 VIP Points in the month of January. Provided that I don't go on an initial 50 BI downswing, I should be able to stay the "$17s" indefinitely. If I do have a 50 BI downswing, I'll probably have to drop all the way back down to $6.50s (after shooting myself in the face).

Hopefully, if I can start actually WINNING at the higher levels, I'll eventually find a home at $25s and start chipping away at Supernova faster by making sure I can earn 8500 VIP points per month at this level.

Secondary 2011 Goal:
2% ROI overall at a mix between $13 and $25. I do not know if this is possible, but I certainly believe it is. I still have a negative ROI at $13s, although some of it has to be bad luck. I've had just one 130 game heater, albeit at a +33% clip, but it was followed by the worst 250-tourney cooler of my life. Over the past 500 games, I've been grinding at basically a barely positive level. The last 200 tourneys represent another downstretch of -$130. In other words, I've had several significant bad stretches, and only 1 significantly good stretch. I know this is results-oriented, as the players up at $13s may just be better than I am, but I have a very strong feeling that most of them aren't. Certainly the ones at $6.50s are a lot worse, but there are lots of fish up at $13, and with my experience and skill at the game, honestly I'm very surprised I'm not at least breaking even. Hopefully this straightens itself out over time. 1100 games at a limit isn't exactly a significant chunk yet, anyway.

Tertiary 2011 Goal
:
If overly successful, move up to $39 by the end of the year.

Financial implications of the goal:
Supernova Status means that I will earn $1000 in Stellar Rewards in stages along the way, plus a $200 cash bonus once I actually hit Supernova Status.

For the roughly 100,000 VIP points I will earn, I should earn roughly 245,000 FPPs, which is the cash equivalent of about $3900. I'm not sure if I will save for the cash reward or if I will play several $215 tourneys along the way. I'm pretty sure I'll take the shots at the $215s. I have a proven, winning expectation at MTT and if I luckbox my way into a five figure amount, things will REALLY start to change.

2% ROI, over 12,000 tourneys at an average buy-in of $17, would earn me $4,080 in winnings over the course of the year.

Adding this all together, my financial goal is to make $9,180 from poker in 2011.

Happy Holidays! See you in 2011.

No comments: